Lately there has been a lot of attention on how Obama seems to be "slipping" in the polls or not doing as well as people (who are these people??) think he should be doing at this point.
First of all, it really doesn't matter how the candidates are polling in the Summer. It really doesn't.
Second of all, there is WAY MORE MEDIA, both web and TV attention given to political campaigns THAN EVER BEFORE.
But the more interesting thing to look at, the tell tale sign is the Electoral College. This will be more like 2000 (where Democat Al Gore won the popular vote, aka national lead, yet Bush won the Presidency based on the electoral votes that came from one state) than 2004, mark my words, with the only difference this time probably being that the Democrat gets the electoral college, not the Republican.
National polls mean nothing in U.S. Presidential elections. That's not how we elect Presidents. The Electoral College is. With all the press over the minute movements in the irrelevant national polls, no one seems to be noticing that the electoral map is still trending very poorly for John McCain.
Yes, it cuts against the media obsession right now to focus on anything that doesn't suggest a dead-heat, but it's quite eye opening to see how the independent groups (and even right-leaning ones) currently see the state of the race through the Electoral College(the only thing that matters)
Real Clear Politics has it 322 to 216, that's Obama +106. Electoral-Vote.com has it 316 to 209, that's Obama +107. FiveThirtyEight.com has it 303 to 235, with Obama + 68. Pollster.com: 284 to 147, Obama +137. The average has Obama ahead 104 electoral votes and in every scenario, more than enough to win the General Election.
The fluctuating state polls lately that show a tight race all involve red states: Colorado, Montana, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Alaska, Georgia, etc. McCain can't win without them.
Let's end this senseless over scrutinizing of "why doesn't Obama have a bigger lead?" when the question should be, "why is McCain losing the General Election (via the Electoral College)?"
The Obama Camp knew that the way to win the Primary was by winning the proportioned delegates in the different districts. Trust me, I am certain they are doing the same with the Electoral College votes in the must win states to put them over the 270 votes needed to win.